Herald Sun’s Terry McCrann: “The Climate Spectator’s a joke!”

terry_mcrann

Terry McCrann tips a bucket on the Climate Speculator.

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The Herald Sun’s leading numbers man, Terry McCrann is clearly on the STT team – he came out swinging a while back with a call to can the fans – in no uncertain terms (see our post here).

Well, Terry’s back and – from the way his latest piece reads – we think just might have been sneaking a peek at a few of our recent posts – it’s almost spooky.

This time Terry’s caught on to the unassailable FACT that hundreds of times each year the combined output from Australia’s wind farms registers little more than a big fat doughnut – which leaves coal, gas and hydro to take up the slack.

And we love the way Terry tips an enormous bucket on the “capo dei capi” of greentard bloggers, Tristan Edis of Climate Speculator fame.

Tristan has never had the strongest grip on energy market fundamentals – and is always a little too quick to cut his jib to suit his undying love affair with giant fans – he never lets the facts get in the way of lots of warm, fuzzy fan-tales.

After the massive national wind power fail a week back, Tristan tied himself in knots trying to put a positive gloss on the grand fan debacle.  But – as Terry points out – Tristan’s half-baked efforts to hose down the media disaster that followed scored a monumental FAIL.

As it is now, it will always be – no matter how many more fans get slung up – no matter how many more $billions worth of RECs get funnelled from power punters to wind weasels – the story will be the same in 10 years or 100 years – wind power is premised on a technology which was redundant before it even began.  It can only ever be delivered in crazy, random intervals and – even then – at EXORBITANT cost.

Over to Terry to tell the tale that STT followers know all too well.

When you need more power to keep the lights on the answer is most certainly NOT blowing in the wind
Herald Sun
Terry McCrann
23 January 2014

THANK God – or Gaia – for King Coal.

But for our coal-fired power stations, in last week’s heat, the lights and air conditioners and everything else would have gone off for Victorians and South Australians.

If we’d been relying on wind farms, we would have had multiple blackouts and hundreds, if not thousands of extra deaths.

No doubt to Green fanatics like Senator Sarah Hanson-Young, that would have been a price worth paying – just like the thousand or more who have drowned because of the disastrous Labor-Green asylum-seeker policies – to enable her consequence-lite moral (actually, totally IM-moral) preening.

As my colleague Andrew Bolt has pointed out, back in 2011, Senator Hanson-Young was asked after another 200 people had been lured to their deaths by the Labor policies they supported, whether the Greens took any responsibility.

Her reply: “Of course not. Tragedies happen, accidents happen.”

Presumably she’s say the same at the many, many, more deaths that would occur in a heatwave, if we were crazy enough to embrace her dark-Green agenda and close down our coal-fired power stations and replace them – correction, pretend to replace them – with wind and solar.

The evidence is clear, unambiguous and undeniable. Except of course to deniers like Hanson-Young and Tristan Edis of the – embarrassingly, also our – Climate Spectator website.

When you need more power to keep the lights on, to keep industry working, to, at its most basic, keep people alive, the answer is most certainly NOT blowing in the wind.

When we needed more power last week, wind went missing in action. This truth is captured in the graphs.

When power usage was exploding from 6000MW to over 10,000MW and peaking above 12,000MW, the – already marginal – contribution from wind was almost invariably going down.

The graphs show that on only one day of the four-days of plus-40 degree heat across southern Australia, did wind provide anything close to a sustained – but still essentially insignificant – contribution to Victorian and South Australian power supply.

On each of the other three days, wind power essentially went missing for a number of hours right at critical times. On Tuesday, wind output dropped almost to zero for a sustained period right at the peak of the heat in the afternoon.

The data comes from the excellent windfarmperformance website of Andrew Miskelly. He collects the raw data from the official AEMO – Australian Energy Market Operator – feed, and publishes wind farm output at five minute intervals for the full 24 hours of every day.

The data gives the lie to the core claim made for wind farms – that if you scatter them across enough territory, the wind will always “be blowing somewhere.”

Well, for three hours on Wednesday, we got barely 140 megawatts (MW) in total out the 28 wind farms “scattered” across NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

That’s 140MW when demand was peaking at over 10,000MW. Thank you coal.

The wind farms are – jokingly – supposed to have a total capacity of 2660 MW. So we were getting power equal to just 5 per cent or so of that ‘capacity.’

There are two other equally significant – and utterly damming – messages in the graphs.

The first is that it is precisely when you need more power, that wind falls off. When it gets hot.

Through most of the heat of Tuesday, that 2660MW of joke-capacity was producing 600MW falling to 400MW. On Wednesday, apart from the three hours of essentially nothing, for the whole of the rest of the day, we got barely 300-400MW.

Thursday was the only day where we saw a sustained, semi-reasonable contribution. But then it was still mostly only around 900MW.

Friday saw some hours of around 1200MW. Except it spiked down to 400MW, or less than 4 per cent of power demand – smack in the middle of the afternoon, when we needed the power most.

This points to the second damming message. Precisely because the wind can stop blowing – and as we can see, it can stop blowing right across Southern Australia at the same time – you have to keep real power stations ticking over all the time, to be able to pick up the slack.

Even warmist propagandist Edis tacitly – and completely unknowingly – admits this, in his ludicrous attempt to claim reliability for wind.

On his website he wrote that AEMO had an “ace up its sleeve” – being able to accurately forecast the amount of wind power that would be generated 24-hours in advance.

He charted the forecasts against the actual output and showed a remarkable – indeed impressive – co-relation.

Leading him to triumphantly conclude that gave both AEMO and the generators advance notice as to when “wind generation was likely to be low such that they can be prepared to fill the gap.”

In doing so he beautifully – and so totally unknowingly – captured the point: that coal-fired power stations have to be kept ready to take over when …. the wind don’t blow.

It also didn’t help his case that his article carried a correction that the accurate forecasting wasn’t 24 hours ahead but just a single hour.

What a way to run a grid – checking whether the wind is blowing and then ‘forecasting’ it will continue for the next hour. And, oh by the way, having a nice coal-fired station to call up when it doesn’t.

Further and fundamentally, we can handle this when wind is barely 5 per cent or so – 10 per cent on a rare good day or hour – of the grid. That’s to say, while wind is still essentially a vanity highly expensive Green-warmist feel-good form of power generation.

It would be impossible – even with what Edis thinks is the luxury of a single hour’s notice – in a grid where wind was a much bigger component. That would be especially so, if the coal-fired stations were actually decommissioned.

In the classic dishonest warmist way, Edis tries to suggest that wind is actually more reliable because in the middle of last week, one of Loy Yang A’s generators went down, going from generating 450MW to zero in minutes.

“This outage was certainly not forecast in advance,” he snarkily added.

No it obviously wasn’t. But there’s one huge difference in a rare accident to a single generator in a coal-fired plant and the times – the many times – that the entire wind industry goes to zero or near enough to zero.

Perhaps Edis can tell us how many times have all the generators in all the coal-fired stations gone to zero at the same time?

That’s the absolutely damning point about the uselessness of wind. You can’t just take a ‘time-out’ when they go to zero. You either have blackouts or you substitute.

You have to keep extra coal-fired – or gas – stations ticking over, literally 24/7, to be able to supply power when …. what’s that phrase again? Oh yes …. when the wind don’t (so often) blow.
Herald Sun

Terry makes quite a point of referring to the data tossed up on Andrew Miskelly’s cracking windfarmperformance.info website.

2_77

FFS, not more shameful output data from windfarmperformance.info!?!

****

STT swears by it – wind weasels and their parasites (like Trisan Edis) just swear at it. Funny about that.

Well, just to rub a little more salt into the wounds here’s a recap of the recent energy market debacle – brought to Australia’s Eastern Grid courtesy of the great wind power fraud.

On the Eastern Grid Australia’s wind farms are spread from: Jamestown in the Mid-North, west to Cathedral Rocks on lower Eyre Peninsula and south to Millicent in South Australia; down to Cape Portland (Musselroe) and Woolnorth (Cape Grim) in Tasmania; all over Victoria; and right up to Cullerin on the New South Wales Tablelands.  Those hundreds of fans are spread out over a geographical expanse of 632,755 km².

Eastern grid3

That’s an area which is 2.75 times the combined area of England (130,395 km²) Scotland (78,387 km²) and Wales (20,761 km²) of 229,543 km².

So you’d think that if the yarn spun by greentards about the “wind always blowing somewhere” such that there’ll ALWAYS be oodles of wonderful “free” wind power had any legs it would run like the wind in Australia.

Well, let’s debunk that little furphy with some pictures – courtesy of windfarmperformance.info.  Oh, and if they appear out of focus, click on them, they’ll pop up in a new window and look clean and crisp.

13 January 2014 National

Let’s start with Monday, 13 January.  From 10am from 5pm the entire fleet of fans connected to the Eastern Grid couldn’t top 300 MW (or 11% of their total capacity of 2,660 MW) and for most of that 7 hour stretch struggled to produce 150 MW (or 5.6% of total capacity) and all as demand picked up (as usual) around Noon and rose into the afternoon.

Surely things picked up the next day?

14 January 2014 National

Tuesday, 14 January saw Australia’s wind power capital, South Australia (1,203 MW capacity) producing a risible 110 MW (or 9% of capacity) at the same time demand hit its peak and – as a result – the dispatch price rocketed from $70 per MW/h to $10,500 as peaking power operators cranked up OCGTs and diesel generators to keep the grid up and running (see our post here).

About the same time wind power output took a dive in SA, the output of all fans on the Eastern Grid amounted to less than 400 MW – or a derisory 15% of the total nameplate capacity of 2,660 MW.

At the same time (around 7pm) SA’s fans were producing 110 MW – ALL of the fans in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania collectively managed to add a laughable 290 MW to the 400 MW total – which represents a woeful 20% of their total nameplate capacity of 1,457 MW.

As they say, “what a difference a day makes” – so surely wind weasels were back in the game by Wednesday?

15 January 2014 National

Wednesday, 15 January proving – yet again – that only the completely deluded would ever use “wind power” and “reliable” in a sentence.

From Noon to 3pm Australia’s entire collection of fans pumped out less than 160 MW (or less than 6% of capacity) and bottomed out (as demand peaks) at a laughable 90 MW (or 3.4% of capacity).

Every time this happens (and it happens over 100 times each year – see our post here) the dispatch price skyrockets from its usual average of around $40 per MW/h and often hits the $12,500 per MW/h regulated cap.

In the meantime, the grid is kept up and running with OCGTs and diesel generators that spew out 3-5 times the amount of CO2 that a modern coal-fired plant emits for the same given output.

And if you think what we’ve laid out above was an aberration, then keep a watch on windfarmperformance.info this week.  STT’s bet is that wind power output will register an enormous FAIL – yet again. South-Eastern Australia is set for a run of typically warm summers days, with a large high pressure system sitting over Victoria, which means no wind and, accordingly, no wind power.

As a foretaste, on Australia Day (26 January) the total output from Australia’s fans struggled to top 200 MW (or 7.5% of capacity) for around 8 hours from Noon (right when the juice was needed most).

All this would be hilarious if someone else was paying for it – but the “joke” is all at taxpayer and power punter expense.

highwayman

This is hilarious, so why aren’t you laughing?
Is it because you’re paying for it?

About stopthesethings

We are a group of citizens concerned about the rapid spread of industrial wind power generation installations across Australia.

Comments

  1. Jackie Rovenksy says:

    How can the IWT industry and its supporters keep spouting lies? It doesn’t matter what they say they cannot hide from the truth so beautifully shown on the windfarmperformance website.

    They keep trying to justify their ideology, and each time they try they are smacked in the face with truthful responses such as this article.

    The Government should also be remember there is a need to assess the cost to the public. The energy used during the ‘peak’ periods which is when the heat is the most intense, is charged at a higher rate and this last heatwave occurred during the school holiday period so more people were at home using their home air-conditioners and companies were ramping up air-conditioners to ensure they were ensuring OH@S of their workers was taken care of.

    How will those already finding energy accounts difficult to pay manage when they get their latest ones, especially with another heatwave due in a day or two?

    With the need to constantly upgrade infrastructure and connect these projects to the grid, paid for by the public, not the industry and energy prices have been ramped up because of this push for useless IWT’s for energy production. So much, that for those in most need, they may not be able to afford to switch on what could be lifesaving air-conditioning, let alone use electricity for anything else. Just how many more will be ‘turned-off’ because they cannot afford to have the ‘luxury’ of electricity?

  2. ‘On his website he wrote that AEMO had an “ace up its sleeve” – being able to accurately forecast the amount of wind power that would be generated 24-hours in advance.’
    Is that so? I believe we may need to credit wind energy activist Mike Barnard for this IBM enabled possible ‘ace.’ More to follow…

  3. Terry Conn says:

    Well, this about says it all! But there will be more because the entire Australian consumers of electricity public still need to get access to these truths. Please keep the ‘letters to the editor ‘ going.

  4. Tristan = Factual Twistan

    No further comments…

  5. Melissa Ware~ receptor locator and refugee says:

    And when there is little or no wind these ineffectual turbines and facilities gulp down power from the grid in attempt to keep things turning over – how much power is the question and who pays the bill?

    Wind is not ‘free’. In this country, health and well-being, the homes and lifestyles of Australian rural folk are not disposable.

    This cultural and physical dislocation is in the name of what??

Trackbacks

  1. […] unpredictable, basis (see our posts here and hereand here and here and here andhere and here and here). And for more recent woeful […]

  2. […] It’s quite happy to produce plenty of power when it’s not needed at night time; and much less during the day, when it is (as seen in the graph above); and often, none at all during periods of peak demand: as seen in the graph below, showing the entire fleet of wind farms connected to the Eastern Grid (based in SA, NSW, Tasmania and Victoria, which in July had a notional capacity of 2,952 MW) producing 20 MW or 0.67% of total capacity, just as demand starts to peak – and see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  3. […] As STT followers are acutely aware, wind power is an economic and environmental fraud. Because wind power can only ever be delivered at crazy, random intervals – and, therefore, never “on-demand” – it will never be a substitute for those generation sources which are – ie hydro, nuclear, gas and coal (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  4. […] The ABC’s climate change narrative puts wind power up as THE solution to climate change, deliberately ignoring the facts; namely the need for 100% of its capacity to be backed up 100% of the time by fossil fuel generation sources, which means, therefore, that wind power cannot and will never reduce CO2 emissions in the electricity sector (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  5. […] The ABC’s climate change narrative puts wind power up as THE solution to climate change, deliberately ignoring the facts; namely the need for 100% of its capacity to be backed up 100% of the time by fossil fuel generation sources, which means, therefore, that wind power cannot and will never reduce CO2 emissions in the electricity sector (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  6. […] And it needs to borne in mind that any “investment” in wind power generation capacity has to be matched with an equal investment in fossil fuel generation capacity (principally fast-start-up Open Cycle Gas Turbines) to provide power to balance the grid (the need for which increases – along with the need for additional spinning reserve held by base-load thermal generators – due to the wild fluctuations in wind power output – see our post here) and to accommodate routine, but unpredictable, collapses in wind power output (our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  7. […] on a routine basis (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here). The greater the installed capacity of wind power, the more OCGTs that are needed to balance the […]

  8. […] STT has pointed out – just once or twice – that that claim is nothing more than a central, endlessly repeated lie. Because wind power fails to deliver at all hundreds of times each year, 100% of its capacity has to be backed up 100% of the time by fossil fuel generation sources – which run constantly in the background to balance the grid and prevent blackouts when wind power output collapses – as it does on a routine, but unpredictable, basis (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  9. […] Wind power – delivered at crazy, random intervals – requires 100% of its capacity to be backed up 100% of the time by fossil fuel generation sources and, therefore, cannot and will never reduce CO2 emissions in the electricity sector (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  10. […] Oh, and if you think the data we’ve picked represents a few “unlucky” days for wind power generators see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here. […]

  11. […] Wind power doesn’t run on wind, it runs on subsidies. And the cost of these subsidies goes way beyond direct financial incentives; such as the REC Tax levied on all Australian power consumers – and extends to the cost of conventional generators holding sufficient spinning reserve and fast-start-up Open Cycle Gas Turbines – both forced to lay idle when wind output rises above a doughnut, but kept ready and available to compensate for the periods when – almost each and every day – wind power output plummets (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  12. […] A nanosecond’s research would allow these deluded doctors to reach the sound (read “only”) conclusion that wind power is not a substitute for conventional generation sources, requiring 100% of its capacity to be backed up 100% of the time (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  13. […] It could go on and start digging into the insane costs of providing fast start-up peaking power (primarily from costly and highly inefficient Open Cycle Gas Turbines) needed to keep the grid up and running when wind power disappears every day and for days on end (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  14. […] Herald Sun’s Terry McCrann: “The Climate Spectator’s a joke!” […]

  15. […] it can never be supplied on-demand (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here). It’s the last point which is the only possible justification for the enormous stream of […]

  16. […] For more STT Mythbuster’s data see our posts here and here and here and here and here. […]

  17. […] Wind power cannot and will never reduce CO2 emissions in the electricity sector – simply because 100% of its capacity is backed up 100% of the time by fossil fuel generation to account for the fact it disappears for hours every day – and for days on end – producing nothing more than hollow promises of “powering” millions of Australian homes (see our posts here and here and here and here and here and here). […]

  18. […] The wind industry and its parasites have lately been running media interference trying to deflect attention from the obvious impact renewable policy, generally, and wind power, in particular is having on retail power prices. Tricks include pointing to wholesale prices – about which power punters couldn’t care less – and never discussing Power Purchase Agreements; or the fact that Renewable Energy Certificates issued to wind power generators are a Federal Tax on all Australian power consumers that has added over $8 billion to power bills, so far, and will add a further $54 billion between now and 2031, when the RET expires; and never, ever talking about INSANE peaking power costs that hit the roof when wind-watts disappear every day and, frequently, for days on end (see our posts here and here and here and here). […]

  19. […] The $30 billion talked about by Ray and Tom in their papers is the cost of duplicating the network just to take wind power – on the few occasions it actually delivers (see our posts here and here and here and here). […]

  20. […] Nor has there been any serious effort made to assess the consequences of using a power generation source which can only be delivered at crazy, random intervals – namely, the exorbitant costs of peaking power increasingly being provided by highly inefficient Open Cycle Gas Turbines and the increased CO2 emissions generated by OCGTs (3-4 times per unit generated compared a modern coal/thermal plant) and the need to burn mountains of coal and gas without generating a single spark just to hold sufficient “spinning reserve” (see our post here) to cover wind-watts when they disappear every day and, frequently, for days on end (see our posts here and here and here and here). […]

  21. […] In reality – just like everywhere else – wind power will be delivered at crazy, random intervals such that those 80,000 homes – if left to rely upon wind power alone – will see their owners sitting freezing or in the dark at least 70% of the time – except they’ll never know which 70% of the time that might be. Positively Stone Age stuff (see our posts here and here and here and here). […]

  22. […] Herald Sun’s Terry McCrann: “The Climate Spectator’s a joke!” […]

  23. […] The likes of the Climate Speculator, ruin-economy and yes2ruining-us keep harping on about having wonderful “free” wind power available around the clock because Australia has fans spread all over the Country (see our post here). […]

  24. […] No seriously, if you don’t believe us, why not slip into an alternative dimension and have a look at The Climate Speculator, Ruin-Economy and yes2ruining-us – these clowns pitch it up on a daily basis (see our post here). […]

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