Dry spells, spell hot summers in Australia, which spell load shedding and mass blackouts, whenever the sun sets and/or calm weather sets in.
The summer of 2017/18 was a scorcher. Back then, load shedding caught power consumers short in South Australia, Victoria and NSW. Energy-hungry businesses such as aluminium smelters and even hospitals were forced to power down during a run of scorching days and nights, when temperatures soared and wind power output plummeted: Australia Closes Coal-Fired Power Plants: Hospitals Forced to Cut Power Use & Power Prices Rocket
5 years on, the situation is even more perilous, with the closure of several large coal-fired power plants and even more chaotic wind and solar added to the grid.
Pretending to rely on sunshine and breezes for power brings with it plenty of opportunities for freezing or boiling in the dark.
Once again, Australia is experiencing below-average rainfall; once again, Australians will feel the heat this summer; and, once again Australian power consumers and businesses will be chopped unceremoniously from the grid when temperatures rise and wind and solar output collapses.
Sky News’ Chris Kenny takes up the subject with the Federal Shadow Energy Minister, Ted O’Brien in the interview below.
‘Not surprising’: Warnings Australia could face power outages
Sky News
Chris Kenny and Ted O’Brien
31 Ausust 2023
Shadow Climate Change and Energy Minister Ted O’Brien says AMEO’s warning to the government that Australia could potentially experience blackouts over the upcoming summer isn’t surprising.
“I don’t think it should be surprising to anyone who has been following this to think that Australians are now paying among the highest electricity bills in the world, and they’re now being told that they have to brace for a very likely possibility of a blackout,” he told Sky News host Chris Kenny.
“I mean, it’s extraordinary to think we’re in Australia of all places, such a developed, wealthy, prosperous country, and we’re all saying, ‘I hope the weather is going to be okay, otherwise the lights will go out; it shouldn’t be like this.'”
Transcript
Chris Kenny: I spoke with shadow energy minister, Ted O’Brien, about how today’s warning was as predictable as it is worrying.
Ted O’Brien: It is, Chris. I don’t think it should be surprising anyone who’s been following this to think that Australians are now paying among the highest electricity bills in the world. And they’re being told now that they have to brace for a very likely possibility of a blackout. I mean, the light’s going out, it’s extraordinary, but it shouldn’t be a surprise.
Chris Kenny: No, it’s not a surprise. But we ought to be angry right around this country because so many people have been warning about this for so many years. In fact, we know the only reason we haven’t had widespread blackouts or brownouts over the past two summers is that we’ve had mild summers. We haven’t had those really hot days when there’s been high demand, and that’s what we’ve got to hope for again this summer, presumably.
Ted O’Brien: I think that’s right, Chris. And I think it was the same thing before the winter. People were saying, “Hopefully, it’s not going to be a bad winter.” And thankfully, winter didn’t bite anywhere as harshly as we thought it might, so we survived. I mean, it’s extraordinary to think we’re in Australia of all places, such a developed, wealthy, prosperous country, and we’re all saying, “Well, I hope the weather’s going to be okay, otherwise the lights will go out.” I mean, it shouldn’t be like this.
Chris Kenny: Not just a developed wealthy economy, but one that’s built on cheap energy. We are energy rich. This economy has been blessed with cheap energy in Australia, yet we’ve deliberately thwarted that. And that’s where you, as a Coalition, have got to take some of the blame. Of course, you were in government less than 18 months ago, and obviously you haven’t done enough to keep enough dispatchable energy generation in the system.
Ted O’Brien: Chris, a couple of things. Firstly, as I’ve gone around different countries and spoken to their energy ministers and experts, we are the envy of the world because we are so rich in our abundance of resources. We are the last country that should have the problems that we have now. As for the background in terms of how we get to this, I think there are three key drivers here. One, premature closure of base load power stations. Two, a restriction on gas. And three, with renewables, I mean, investment has stalled on that too. So demand exceeds supply and there’s a risk there of a shortfall, and here we are.
But the thing is, the more that Labour doubles down on this lunacy of driving to a renewables-only grid, saying that some technologies are bad, the worse this problem’s going to get. And I can’t believe that the response from the Energy Minister to this news from the market operator is saying, “Well, oh they’re doing a great job. We’ve got the right policies.” No, you don’t have the right policies when it’s getting worse. The market operator’s saying it’s getting worse. All the energy experts are saying it’s getting worse. But they need to address those three issues, of base load power and gas and the sovereign risk issue, which is holding back on investment.
Chris Kenny: Yeah, Chris Bowen just says they need more renewables, and more transmission to connect the renewables. That just costs more money and doesn’t give us the reliable supply that we need. And we’re in a country here now where we’ve subsidised renewables relentlessly for 20 years, deliberately to force out fossil fuel generation, deliberately to force out coal-fired generation. But now we’ve got Victoria and New South Wales looking to subsidise coal to keep it online because it’s being driven out by the renewable subsidies that were designed to force it out. I mean, it is that insane.
Ted O’Brien: The whole thing is in tatters, Chris. So to think that here we have the federal government saying it must be only wind and solar as the generating assets. Meanwhile, the state Labour in Victoria, well, they’re racing back to coal. We’re waiting for the New South Wales government to say the same thing to avoid Eraring close. So everyone’s going their own way. It’s an utter mess. But still to this day, Chris Bowen is saying, “Nope, we have to stick to 82% renewables by 2030.” There is no plan B. This is it. He’s racing us towards a cliff, which is why we need to keep calling it out.
Chris Kenny: I know you’ve been pushing hard on nuclear, and the Coalition ought to keep doing that. That’s a great medium to long-term solution, but obviously what we need in the interim is more gas fired generation because that won’t be a stranded asset. No matter whether you have renewables or nuclear, you’re always going to need some gas peaking generation around the country. Tell us what you think about Snowy Hydro 2.0 though. That was Malcolm Turnbull’s baby. We learned today, confirmation that its cost now is $12 billion, promised at 2 billion now 12 billion, and that doesn’t include the up to $10 billion of transmission to plug it into the system.
Ted O’Brien: And Chris, when you think of those big numbers, and then you hear Chris Bowen saying electricity prices will come down, he does not account for any of those expenses. And that was revealed only a week ago, a $60 billion black hole in his policy.
But as for Snowy 2.0, the thing that I just can’t get my head around here is it’s gone from 6 billion to 12 billion in just over 12 months. Now, I don’t doubt how complicated this is. I mean, this is one complex engineering feat. No criticism of very hardworking, sharp minds that are working on the actual project. But the Australian National Audit Office did a review of this, at the end of the Coalition’s term of government, and gave it a big tick for how it’s being managed, the governance being effective. And then I heard Paul Broad, the former CEO, on radio just yesterday, saying around that time the price tag was 6 billion. Well, now it’s 12 billion.
Now, I think it’s legitimate that some costs would’ve gone up. That’s fair enough. But to double it in over 12 months. And the only thing I can see changing is Chris Bowen signed off on a change in the deal construct. It’s no longer fixed fee, but rather cost plus. So instead of having the prime contractor responsible and holding their feet to the fire, he’s basically shifted responsibility to the taxpayer. All the risk and additional costs, that now falls on the taxpayer. So is it really 12 billion or is it going to go up even further? I think it’s uncapped.
Chris Kenny: No, we know it’ll be 20 billion at least when you bring in the transmission. That’s what experts have told us on this programme for many, many months. It’s a familiar story on this climate and energy policy. Lots of money going in, lots of costs going up, but not much energy around the place, which seems to be the opposite of what Australian taxpayers deserve. Thanks so much for joining us, Ted.
Ted O’Brien: Thanks very much, Chris.
Sky News
STOP THESE THINGS 
Perhaps the UN are correct when they refer to the term ‘Global Boiling.’ Both Victorian and South Australian residents will most certainly be ‘boiling’ when the grid collapses on a 40C summer’s day, and they cannot run their air conditioners!
Ask yourself, if the UN were genuinely concerned for the well being of citizens, then why the hell are they constantly trying to scare the crap out of everyone?!! Especially the children, which is just the lowest of the low. When they start using the children to push their propaganda, I for one stop listening!
It is the same with the current YES campaign for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. Off the left go again using children to push their agenda, as they have done throughout the Climate fear campaign. And as before, I will stop listening to their message. Leave the kids alone! They are not there to be shoved out into the public limelight every time the UN and the hard left have another used car to sell you… enter stage left!
The irony is, the left are just dripping with hate now, and they cannot see how they appear to the rest of us. Those of us who will not be drawn into this Woke narrative or Climate propaganda. Fear, threats and intimidation are the big giveaways to this hidden agenda. And the more they engage in it, the more harm they are doing to themselves.
As for the ‘R’ word, or racist! I will not use it anymore. In fact to use their terminology, I’ve CANCELLED IT!
No, Rafe, our coal fired electricity is not now and never was the cheapest in the world – but it came close, back in the 1980’s.
But the chickens are coming home to roost now and there will be no easy way out of the mess that we are in. My position is that climate change is a real and pressing problem, but there is no point in panicking.
There is plenty of value in adopting Plan B, which is to:
Do what we can to retain as much coal fired gen as we can till supply problems are behind us,
To develop large nuclear power using an established design on an existing coal fired power station site or two,
Get moving on a few SMR’s and to
Push ahead with storage options (batteries and pumped hydro storage), because we will need them to bridge the dunkelflaute days when there’s too little sun and wind.
Thanks John, I was probably thinking of Victorian brown coal and I am happy to be corrected, certainly we were blessed during the period when the price of power bottomed out after the excess workers were shed from the public utilities, but then other rent seekers turned up:)
Your Plan B is good although I dissent from the need to reduce CO2 emissions.
We are certainly going to need coal generation until nuclear power can replace it, otherwise we will have to burn a lot of extra gas at crippling cost. And we are on the brink of really serious problems.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/
Dunkelflaute is an important concept to master. From the German, it refers to when there is neither sun nor wind: calm dark.
Today’s news includes demands from the RE industry for more than $100B more for renewable energy, on top of whatever billions of public and private dollars they have already been gifted. To avoid dunkelflaute we need ample clean, firm electricity, not more RE. By “clean” I mean with measurable verifiable low emissions of say <50g/kWh. If we are fair dinkum we will include or exclude new generation on the basis of verified test results, not meaningless categorisation as "renewable" – a word devised by the industry's vendors and spruikers.
But first things first. The plan must be (A) to keep what we have until the clean, firm alternative is installed and (B) to avoid blackouts due to dunkelflaute.
I don’t understand why we have to worry about emissions of CO2, nowadays modern plant does not emit undesirable emissions like nitrates and particulate matter.
With a co-author I wrote a book to explain that warming alarmism is based on fake science, warming has been good for us and the planet. Likewise the extra CO2 in the air.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=rafe+champion
Ted O’Brien along with the other green and pink liberals in the Liberals is part of the problem, he is alarmed about warming and he thinks we need to aim for net zero.
Beware of the people who go for nuclear to avoid facing up to the fact that wind and solar won’t work and we should be happy to burn our beautiful black coal and the brown coal that provides the cheapest power in the world.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/09/04/beware-of-pink-and-green-liberals/
Valid comments Rafe, but perhaps we should be thankful for a few small first steps? I think it is going to take a some major blackouts before our technology ignorant politicians start to take notice
They will not move until they are pushed by the voters in their electorates so we have to get to the people with clear messages about the total failure of wind and solar power that is becoming clear as countries run down conventional power to the point where wind and solar matter. Wind literacy is the first step.