The fool learns from his own experience, the wise tend to learn from the experience of others. In that respect, Britain provides the perfect opportunity for students of energy policy to avoid their very own self-inflicted wind and solar calamity.
Britain went all in with its grand offshore wind experiment – accordingly, power prices rocketed out-of-control just as predicted by those with an understanding of how electricity is generated and distributed.
Punishing power prices are down to the exorbitant cost of using gas and diesel to generate power whenever calm weather sets in; the additional transmission and network costs of bringing power produced occasionally from remote locations, especially offshore; and the billions in subsidies paid to wind power generators – including hundreds of millions in payments to not produce wind power at all.
As Charles Rotter reports below, recently Dr Capell Aris PhD, an engineer with a lifetime’s experience in the power generation sector – outlined why Britain provides the perfect example of how to avoid a power pricing and supply disaster, for those who care to learn from the disastrous experiences of others.
The Potential Pitfalls of an Overly Ambitious Energy Transition: Lessons from Britain’s Green Energy Endeavors
Watts Up With That?
Charles Rotter
13 June 2023
The Telegraph article referenced for this piece was written by Dr Capell Aris PhD who has spent his career in the electricity generation sector. He is a former Fellow of the Institute of Engineering and Technology
As the United States sets its sights on a significant expansion of offshore wind capacity, it would do well to examine the cautionary tale unfolding in Britain. With the UK already grappling with the consequences of an aggressive pursuit of green energy, American policymakers and citizens must carefully assess the feasibility and potential risks of such a rapid energy transition. In this article, we explore the concerns that Britain’s experience should serve as an awful warning to Americans.
The True Cost of Offshore Wind
“The UK already has 15 GW of offshore wind, more than 300 times as much as the USA: and our experience should be a terrible warning to Americans.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/11/green-energy-disaster-uk-awful-warning-america/
The exorbitant costs associated with offshore wind power in the UK provide a significant cause for concern. Offshore wind farms, such as Hornsea Two and Moray East, were built at a capital cost of £2.77 billion and £2.75 billion per GW, respectively, which is more than four times the cost of gas-burning Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs). The maintenance expenses for offshore wind farms are also substantial, estimated to be as high as £200 million per GW installed, per annum.
The intermittent nature of wind power presents a fundamental challenge.
“Wind power is unpredictably intermittent and highly variable,”
leading to fluctuations in energy output. Unlike conventional generators, wind turbines cannot be relied upon to deliver energy on demand. Furthermore, the capacity factor of wind farms in the UK has been far from optimal, operating at 33 percent in 2022 and a mere 29 percent in 2021. These factors not only impact the reliability of the electricity supply but also increase the overall cost to consumers.
Strain on the Grid
“As our generation sites move further away from load centres, our grid transmission system has to be expanded to connect the new renewable generators.”
The strain on the transmission grid system becomes significant when renewable generators are located in remote or offshore locations. The National Grid estimates that connecting these new renewable generators will cost £46 billion, or £1,533 per household, by 2030. Additionally, wind power’s inability to provide grid inertia, coupled with the growing proportion of renewables, raises concerns about system instability and the increased risk of blackouts.
Rising Costs for Consumers
“Extra services like very rapid response gas generators, required in order to make it possible to connect renewables to the grid, add between £30/MWh and £50/MWh to renewables’ cost.”
These additional costs, combined with the high capital and maintenance expenses of offshore wind farms, significantly impact the price of electricity. The true cost to consumers for offshore wind generation ranges from £200/MWh to £220/MWh, much higher than the cost of CCGTs.
Even if one wanted to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, for example, to preserve petroleum as a resource for future generations, an overly ambitious and rapid energy transition is not the most prudent path. Urgent attention should be given to the construction of new nuclear plants as a reliable, affordable, and practical means of achieving and energy mix while ensuring secure energy supplies.
The cautionary tale of Britain’s green energy disaster serves as a sobering reminder that an overly ambitious and hastily executed energy transition can have profound consequences. The high costs, intermittency issues, strain on the grid, and limited storage capabilities associated with offshore wind power demand careful consideration. Instead of rushing headlong into an untested energy landscape, policymakers must weigh the potential risks and costs against the desired benefits. A balanced and pragmatic approach that embraces a mix of energy sources may prove to be a more reliable and cost-effective solution in the pursuit of a sane and reliable energy future.
The Telegraph article referenced for this piece was written by Dr Capell Aris PhD who has spent his career in the electricity generation sector. He is a former Fellow of the Institute of Engineering and Technology.
Watts Up With That?
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